Is Autism Really On The Rise?

You may have seen the headlines: Autism rates are going up again. The latest CDC report found that 1 in 31 8-year-olds were identified with autism in 2022–compared to 1 in 36 in 2020 and 1 in 44 in 2018.

But those numbers don’t tell the whole story. The rise in diagnoses isn’t a sign that autism is suddenly more common–it’s a sign that we’re getting better at seeing what’s been there all along.

The shift reflects something powerful: improved awareness, better screening tools, and expanded access to evaluations, especially in communities that were previously overlooked. More children are being recognized for who they are– and getting support earlier as a result. That’s not something to panic about–it’s something to pay attention to.

So what exactly did the CDC find and how can parents make sense of it all?

What the CDC Found

The Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring (ADDM) Network tracks autism rates across multiple U.S. communities and has been publishing these findings every two years since 2000. The latest report, released in April 2025, looks at data from children aged 8 and 4 years old across 16 U.S. communities during the year 2022.

Why both ages?

• 8-year-olds help track overall prevalence–how many children have been identified with autism by a certain age.

• 4-year-olds provide a window into early identification–how many children are being recognized during the preschool years.

Tracking 8-year-olds gives us the clearest picture of how autism is being identified –because by age 8, most children who need an evaluation have had the opportunity to be diagnosed.

Here’s a closer look at the findings–and why it matters:

Prevalence among 8-year-olds

• In 2022, 1 in 31 8-year-old children were identified with autism (32.2 per 1,000)

• That’s up from 1 in 36 in 2020 and 1 in 44 in 2018.

• Rates varied by location, with California showing the highest (53.1 per 1,000) and Laredo, Texas the lowest (9.7 per 1,000)

• Autism was 3.4 times more common in boys than girls

Why this matters: The overall increase in prevalence doesn’t mean autism is suddenly more common–it likely reflects better awareness, improved screening, and broader access to evaluations. The variation across states shows how much local resources, policies, and systems can impact when and how children are diagnosed.

Racial and ethnic breakdown

• Autism was more commonly identified among Asian or Pacific Islander (38.2 per 1,000), American Indian or Alaska Native (37.5), Black (36.6), and Hispanic (33.0) and multiracial (31.9) children compared to White children (27.7).

• This continues a shift first seen in 2020, when these historically underdiagnosed groups began surpassing White children in identification rates.

Why this matters: For decades, autism was underdiagnosed in many racial and ethnic communities due to barriers like limited access, cultural stigma, or provider bias. These newer patterns show progress in reaching more children who may have been missed before–but they also remind us to continue working toward equity in diagnosis and support.

Intellectual disability

• Cognitive data was available for about 61% of 8-year-olds with autism.

• Among those, 39.6% were found to have a co-occurring intellectual disability–typically defined as an IQ score of 70 or below.

• Rates were higher among Black (52.8%), AI/AN (50%), A/PI (43.9%), and Hispanic (38.8%) children.

• Rates were lowest among White (32.7%) and multiracial (31.2%) children.

Why this matters: Autism includes a wide spectrum of strengths and support needs. Some children need more help with learning or daily tasks, while others may not. These differences in cognitive profiles–and in how they’re assessed–can shape what kind of services a child receives. Evaluations need to be equitable, and support needs to be personalized.

Income and access

• In 11 out of 16 communities, autism rates weren’t clearly linked to neighborhood income.

• But in 5 locations, children in lower-income neighborhoods were more likely to be diagnosed with autism.

Why this matters: Autism used to be more frequently diagnosed in higher-income families–often because they had more access to specialists and early intervention. Now, in some areas, we’re seeing that trend flip. That’s a sign of progress, but also inconsistency. Where you live and what resources you have available still influence–whether and when–a child is identified.

Age of evaluation and diagnosis

• Just over half of children (50.3%) were evaluated for autism by age 3 years.

• In 13 of 15 sites, children born in 2018 (who were 4 years old in 2022) were 1.7 times more likely to be identified by 48 months than children born in 2014.

• The prevalence of autism among 4-year-olds was 29.3 per 1,000, which is lower than the rate among 8-year-olds (32.2 per 1,000).

• For every 10 children with autism at age 4, one was classified as “suspected ASD”–still being monitored or in the process of diagnosis.

Why this matters: More children are being evaluated and diagnosed earlier than before–but not all. And even with this shift, fewer children are identified at age 4 than by age 8, which shows that some children still aren’t being recognized until later. Early diagnosis can open the door to early support, but there are still gaps in when and how that happens. For some children, the process of getting answers is still ongoing.

The impact of COVID-19

• The pandemic had a temporary effect on autism identification. In early 2020 there was a drop in evaluations, but by June 2020, rates began to rebound and the increasing trends resumed.

• The use of telehealth assessments helped families continue evaluation and diagnosis when in-person visits weren’t possible.

Why this matters: If you experienced delays in getting an evaluation or starting services during that time, you weren’t alone. The early months of the pandemic disrupted many parts of the healthcare system–but it also led to adaptations, like virtual screenings, that may continue to support families in the future.

So…is autism really increasing?

With each new CDC report, the numbers climb a little higher. From 1 in 44 in 2018, to 1 in 36 in 2020, to now 1 in 31 in 2022, 8-year-old children identified with autism. 

But that doesn’t mean more children are suddenly becoming autistic.

It means more people are being seen.

More families are getting answers.

More professionals are recognizing a broader range of autism traits across different communities, genders, and cognitive profiles.

This shift isn’t about an epidemic. It’s about awareness, access, and changing expectations of what autism “looks like.”

Years ago, many autistic children–espeically girls, children of color, kids with average or high cognitive ability, or those without classic traits–were overlooked.

Now, they’re being recognized. And in many cases, so are their parents.

Many families start the diagnosis process for their child, only to realize that a parent—or grandparent—shares similar traits. Autism often runs in families, and for decades, adults went undiagnosed because the criteria didn’t reflect them... or the support systems didn’t exist.

It’s also important to remember: autism is a spectrum. That means it looks different from person to person, and we’re now better at identifying not just higher-support needs, but also low-support needs—what some might call “low-intervention” autism. These are kids who may have previously fallen through the cracks, especially girls, who often mask symptoms more effectively. We talk more about this in our YouTube conversation on autism characteristics.

Some people still wonder if something in our environment is contributing to the rise—things like pollution, toxins, or modern exposures. And that’s a fair question.

The truth is, we don’t know everything yet. Autism is complex, and researchers continue to study how genetics, early development, and environmental factors might interact. But so far, no single cause has been identified—and no, it’s not vaccines.

To better understand the “why,” we have to start with the full picture—making sure every child is counted, across every community. The better our data, the better our questions. That kind of understanding takes time. But it starts by seeing what’s always been there.

If you’re looking for a deeper dive into the science and evaluation process, this PedsDocTalk podcast episode features a developmental and behavioral pediatrician and explores known risk factors, how the diagnosis is made, the importance of early support, and common misinformation about autism.

What this means going forward

This new CDC report gives us more than just numbers–it offers a clearer reflection of how we’re growing in our understanding of autism.

Yes, the prevalence is rising. But instead of asking what’s wrong, we can ask what are we finally seeing? And how can we continue to support all children–across backgrounds, abilities, and timelines?

Moving forward means:

• Continuing to improve early screening and access to evaluation.

• Ensuring diagnosis isn’t limited by race, income, geography, or gender.

• Supporting families with accurate information, not fear.

If you want to explore this further, this PedsDocTalk podcast episode dives into common misconceptions about autism, identity-first vs. person-first language, outdated terminology, and how pediatricians typically approach screening and evaluations during well-visits.

Autism isn’t new. We’re just finally seeing the full picture.

And that’s not a crisis. That’s progress.

On The Podcast

In this episode, we’re joined by Dr. Aliza Pressman (@raisinggoodhumanspodcast), developmental psychologist, author, and host of the Raising Good Humans podcast, to break down her science-backed framework for parenting: the 5 R’s — Reflection, Regulation, Rules, Repair, and Relationship.

These five simple but powerful principles aren’t just theory — they’re practical tools you can apply to everyday challenges like screen time, sibling fights, and meltdowns. Dr. Pressman shares how these core ideas help build strong, connected relationships with our kids, even when things get messy.

We also talk about:

• Why repair is more powerful than perfection

• How to stay grounded when parenting triggers old wounds

• What makes parenting advice helpful vs. overwhelming

• How to parent with intention, not fear

In this episode, I’m getting deeply personal about something so many of us carry but rarely talk about: mom guilt. After speaking at the Mom 2.0 Summit and leaving home with a sick child, I found myself questioning everything—again. Can I be a present, loving mom and still pursue the work that lights me up?

I explore the tension between purpose and presence, and how we can reframe guilt as a sign of how deeply we care—not proof that we’re failing. I also dive into the concept of the “good-enough mother,” the power of modeling joy, and why slowing down doesn’t mean giving up. If you’ve ever felt torn between who you are and who you’re becoming, this episode is for you.

I discuss:

• Why mom guilt isn’t always a red flag—it’s often a sign of growth and purpose.

• How modeling joy and ambition can actually strengthen your child’s emotional development.

• What it means to embrace shifting seasons in motherhood without losing yourself.

On YouTube

Vaccines don’t cause autism. Here’s how one debunked study sparked a myth—and what science actually says. Parents deserve the truth. The video covers:

• When did this myth even start?

• Why did people believe it?

• What does science actually say?

• Why reopening this question hurts us all

• Why are autism rates rising?

• Why blaming vaccines for autism is harmful

Ask Dr. Mona

An opportunity for YOU to ask Dr. Mona your parenting questions!

Dr. Mona will answer these questions in a future Sunday Morning Q&A email. Chances are if you have a parenting concern or question, another parent can relate. So let's figure this out together!